Every election, an old political saying holds, is the most important election ever. True to form, politicians, political operatives, and pundits alike all characterize the upcoming midterm elections as the “most important election in our nation’s history.” Republicans see the midterms as an opportunity to regain control of one, if not both, houses of Congress in order to further their opposition to President Obama’s legislative efforts. By contrast, some Democrats see this as an opportunity to affirm their support of President Obama and validate his successes, while others fear the consequences of a Republican takeover of the House, Senate, or both.

Unfortunately for Democrats, recent polling has shown that they may be running into a headwind, and many forecasts see widespread Democratic losses at the polls come November. While many have been quick to write off both President Obama and the Democratic Party this November, it is important to put the election into perspective.

Coming into the midterm elections, one need remember that the party that holds the White House almost always loses seats in Congress during the midterm elections; a rule which holds true for Presidents both lionized and vilified. The only recent exception to this rule was 2002, when Republicans increased their margin of seats in the House by eight, and picked up two seats to win the Senate. This success at the polls, however, was largely attributed to President Bush’s leadership after 9/11 more than any other accomplishment in the first part of his presidency. Other than 2002, only three other midterm elections since 1900 have seen the party in power pick up seats: in 1902, 1934, and 1998. Needless to say, history is against President Obama and the Democratic Party in 2010.

Beyond historical trends, there are other, more current factors at work. As the party in power, President Obama and the Democrats represent the status quo and have delivered a long list of legislative accomplishments. Unfortunately, despite control of both the White House and Congress, Democrats, for some, have failed to deliver on promises made during the 2008 campaign, and, despite other accomplishments, are seeking to hold them accountable for their failure in this regard. Indeed, the fact that the Democrats are the majority makes it seem to many that they should not have any trouble in passing legislation that would ameliorate America’s greatest problems. This idea, however, discounts the tremendous ideological variation within the Democratic Party itself. Consequently, voters who supported President Obama and the Democrats in 2008 on the promise of “change” may still feel as though they have not received what they voted for. The political problems that arise from this frustration are exacerbated by the fact that it is generally easier to energize a party’s base when that party is in the opposition. Moreover, President Obama’s accomplishments unfortunately mean he has provided plenty of opportunities for Republicans to twist these ambitious reforms against him.

Despite his legislative accomplishments, President Obama is still struggling with creating jobs, a major policy area and, more importantly, in getting the American people to feel as though the economy is recovering and to feel that same sense of hope that swept the nation in November of 2008 still exists. The very best of presidents will not do especially well in a down economy and President Obama is already polling higher than either President Clinton or President Reagan did at the same point in their respective presidencies, even though both of those presidents had better economies at the time. It is frustration with the status quo, with rising unemployment numbers and, most of all, apparent economic stagnation that contribute to feelings of helplessness and exasperation which voters may well take with them to the polls come Election Day.

Without jobs, and without money to put food on the kitchen table and clothing on kids’ backs, any and all other accomplishments of a president—any president—can perhaps rightly be seen in a diminished light, at least for the moment. That does not, and should not, diminish the fact that President Obama has been the most productive and successful president in many years, but it does mean that the Democratic outlook for these midterm elections is a grim one.

With losses in Congress likely, it is important to ask what will happen after Election Day, when the campaigns end and reality sets in. The political landscape, no matter the outcome of the election, will most certainly require President Obama to shift the way he governs.

No matter the specific outcome on Election Day, it will be important for President Obama to find better ways to communicate with the American people. America has made great strides forward in the past two years, but the White House has failed to really sell these changes to many Americans. President Obama was not elected to be the 101st Senator, but rather the President of the United States, and it will be important for the President to show the American people a vision for the country that is both practical and hopeful. With a Republican-controlled House, Senate, or Congress, it will be crucial for both sides to find new and better ways to work together, especially when it comes to getting the economy fully back on track.

Should the House or Senate fall into Republican hands, President Obama will have a long historical record to draw from, with many useful analogies for the remainder of his first term. After witnessing massive Democratic losses in the 1994 midterm elections, President Clinton pursued a strategy of “triangulation,” in which he pivoted towards the political center, in between Congressional Democrats and House Republicans, under Republican Speaker Newt Gingrich. This shift to the center in turn prepared President Clinton exceptionally well for his reelection campaign in 1996.

For better or for worse, however, Barack Obama is not Bill Clinton, and his response to Democratic losses at the polls will no doubt differ significantly. The better analogy for President Obama to draw upon, in fact, may come from a man wildly different from President Obama: Harry Truman.

In 1948, the Republicans wrestled control of both houses of Congress away from the Democrats, and provided vigorous opposition to President Truman, blocking much of his Fair Deal legislative program, as well as many older elements of the New Deal. In the face of such opposition, President Truman went on the offensive, campaigning almost as much against Congressional Republicans as he did against the Republican presidential nominee, Thomas Dewey. President Truman went on to brand this Congress as the “Do-Nothing Congress,” and, in one memorable instance, perfectly called their bluff by ordering Congress back into a special session in the summer of 1948. During this special session, President Truman turned the national spotlight directly onto Congressional Republicans and challenged them to create and enact legislation to fix just one of the nation’s problems. With a massive political victory in tow, President Truman dealt a body blow to Republican hopes in the presidential election that fall, which saw not only the re-election of President Truman, but Congressional Democrats winning back the House as well.

The key lesson for President Obama, then, may well be that Democratic losses at the polls could be a saving grace in the long term. Stronger, stiffer Republican opposition in the form of a potential Speaker of the House John Boehner could in fact lead to President Obama becoming better able to make his case to the American people, and which might mean that Republican stay in power would be a short one. Should they find themselves in power, the Republicans will no longer be able to fully maintain their current strategy of stonewalling President Obama, as there won’t be Democrats in charge of the House or Senate for them to scapegoat in the process. A further lack of improvement in the economy, in such an instance, could be laid squarely at the feet of Congressional Republicans, leaving the GOP with little cover from the wrath of voters. Indeed, in spite of a floundering economy, a lack of Democratic successes at the polls come November 2 may be the very best thing for President Obama in the next most important election, in 2012.