Western troops found themselves in a quagmire. Despite their training and technology, they found themselves continually defeated by a nearly unseen enemy, a guerilla force with an intimate knowledge of the mountainous battlefield and a fierce devotion to their cause. The military leadership, seeking to minimize casualties, decided that the best option lay in tactical airstrikes. If key opposition figures could be eliminated without even having to put troops on the ground, the war could be won easily, or so they thought. The year was 1920, the battlefield was occupied Iraq, and the decision to use aircraft was made by the British military, which was soon driven out of the countryside and forced to make major concessions to the rebels.

Nine decades later, the United States has been trying to defeat an insurgency in northwestern Pakistan with a similar strategy. Granted, technology has come a long way from biplanes with mounted machine guns. Now it is remote-controlled Predator drones used by the CIA to drop laser guided bombs and Hellfire missiles, but principle of the strikes remains. Munitions drop from the sky onto rural villages, buildings burn, citizens die, and as the smoke settles, the distant roar of a jet engine is the only trace of the phantom attacker.

Drone strikes in Pakistan, started by the Bush Administration in 2004, have been stepped up under the Obama’s leadership. Since 2004, the US has launched 181 drone strikes on Northern Pakistan. 85 of those were in this year alone. Casualties, estimated to be between 1,800 and 2,000, are reported to be nearly two-thirds militants and one third civilians. This year, the civilian casualty rate has been closer to ten percent, although the lack of reliable information on casualties makes it difficult to guess accurately. In this context, however, the real numbers are insignificant.

What is important is the perception of the Pakistani population. As my high school history teacher used to remind my class daily, “Perception is reality.” A recent poll funded by the United States Institute for Peace found that 48% of FATA residents believe that the drone attacks target civilians. As a result of this perception, 75% oppose the drone strikes, 83% view Obama unfavorably, and 90% oppose US military action in the region. The Pashtun tribes of Northwest Pakistan have long been fierce defenders of their territory, and the presence of foreign drones over their territory is in and of itself an affront to their sense of sovereignty.

The United States and the Pashtuns of the NWFP share a common enemy. The vast majority of Pashtuns in the NWFP opposes the Pakistani Taliban, and in a poll conducted by the New America Foundation, 38% said they would support drone strikes conducted by the Pakistani military. The battle here is one for hearts and minds, and the challenge is to assure Pakistanis that we are a supportive ally and not another imperialist conqueror. Unfortunately, the intrusion of mysterious flying machines that kill civilians with shells bearing the inscription “USA” only reinforces this perception.

If the US discontinues its drone strikes in the region, the Taliban in Pakistan will stop being able to draw upon resentment towards the US as a means of gaining support. Civilians there will still fear for their lives, unfortunately, but that fear and resulting resentment will be properly directed towards the Taliban. Once it becomes abundantly clear to people on the ground that the Taliban is the most pressing threat to peace in the region, it will only be a matter of time before it is dislodged and driven out.

Obama, who has taken General McChrystal’s advice and recognized the importance of perceptions in the conflict, understands all of this. He recognizes that drone strikes are not ideal, but at the same time, he is faced with a careful balancing act. The American people, weary after nine years of fighting in Afghanistan, don’t want to see more of their soldiers return in coffins, and images of dead ‘terrorist’ lynchpins serve as a resounding reminder to the public that the war is going well. With the midterm elections approaching, Obama must portray a picture of success if he is to retain domestic support. Unfortunately, while sacrificing Pakistani support for that of Americans may work to keep him in office, it will not make any progress towards bringing peace to northwestern Pakistan.